Earn as a Predictoor
Last updated
Last updated
If you have background in AI, ML, data science or statistics (and these overlap!) then you’re well suited to become a predictoor to make $.
Typical steps as a Predictoor:
Play with predictoor.ai. Go to predictoor.ai to build intuition: observe the free feed, perhaps buy a few feeds, and watch them change over time.
Run a predictoor bot. Follow the steps in the Predictoor README. You’ll start by running simulations with AI-powered predictions. Then you'll run a predictoor bot on a remote testnet staking fake OCEAN. Finally, you’ll do it on mainnet staking real OCEAN.
Optimize the bot. Improve model prediction accuracy via more data and better algorithms. Extend to predict >1 prediction feeds (Predictoor has many). Wash, rinse, repeat.
The actions as a predictoor give the following ways to earn:
Feed sales. At an epoch, sales revenue (minus fees) for that epoch goes to predictoors. It’s distributed pro-rata by stake among the predictoors who predicted the true value correctly. The revenue for an epoch is the fraction of sales, spread uniformly across subscription length. A price of 3 OCEAN, 5m epochs, and 24h (1440m) subscriptions gives a revenue of (# subscribers) * (3 OCEAN) * / (1440m / 5m).
Stake reshuffling. At an epoch, incorrect predictoors have their stake slashed. This slashed stake is distributed to the correct predictoors pro-rata on their stake.
Predictoor Data Farming. This amounts to additional earning for predictoors. Here are details.
On Prediction Accuracy. Don’t expect to be 100% accurate in your up/down predictions. Marginally better than 50% might be enough, and be skeptical if you’re greatly above 50%, you probably have a bug in your testing.
On Amount to Stake. How much should a predictoor stake, to maximize revenue and bound risk? If you stake more, you can earn more, but only to a point. Earnings are bounded by sales of the feeds. So if you stake too much, you will lose $. This blog post provides equations that bound how much to stake, along with general tips.
You will lose money as a predictoor if your $ out exceeds your $ in. If you have low accuracy you’ll have your stake slashed a lot. Do account for gas fees, compute costs, and more. Everything you do is your responsibility, at your discretion. None of this blog is financial advice.
