Earn as a Predictoor

If you have background in AI, ML, data science or statistics (and these overlap!) then you’re well suited to become a predictoor to make $.

Typical steps as a Predictoor:

1. Play with predictoor.ai. Go to predictoor.ai to build intuition: observe the free feed, perhaps buy a few feeds, and watch them change over time.

2. Run a predictoor bot. Follow the steps in the Predictoor README. You’ll start by running simulations with AI-powered predictions. Then you'll run a predictoor bot on a remote testnet staking fake OCEAN. Finally, you’ll do it on mainnet staking real OCEAN.

3. Optimize the bot. Improve model prediction accuracy via more data and better algorithms. Extend to predict >1 prediction feeds (Predictoor has many). Wash, rinse, repeat.

The actions as a predictoor give the following ways to earn:

• Feed sales. At an epoch, sales revenue (minus fees) for that epoch goes to predictoors. It’s distributed pro-rata by stake among the predictoors who predicted the true value correctly. The revenue for an epoch is the fraction of sales, spread uniformly across subscription length. A price of 3 OCEAN, 5m epochs, and 24h (1440m) subscriptions gives a revenue of (# subscribers) * (3 OCEAN) * / (1440m / 5m).

• Stake reshuffling. At an epoch, incorrect predictoors have their stake slashed. This slashed stake is distributed to the correct predictoors pro-rata on their stake.

• Predictoor Data Farming. This amounts to additional earning for predictoors. Here are details.

On Prediction Accuracy. Don’t expect to be 100% accurate in your up/down predictions. Marginally better than 50% might be enough, and be skeptical if you’re greatly above 50%, you probably have a bug in your testing.

On Amount to Stake. How much should a predictoor stake, to maximize revenue and bound risk? If you stake more, you can earn more, but only to a point. Earnings are bounded by sales of the feeds. So if you stake too much, you will lose $. This blog post provides equations that bound how much to stake, along with general tips.

You will lose money as a predictoor if your $ out exceeds your $ in. If you have low accuracy you’ll have your stake slashed a lot. Do account for gas fees, compute costs, and more. Everything you do is your responsibility, at your discretion. None of this blog is financial advice.